On 19 May 1997, Megan wrote:
> WHO also plans to destroy all poliovirus stocks, I believe, in 2005 or 2007,
> I dont remember which. The stupidity of this move is highlighted by the
> fact that polioirus is still found in third world countries, and so people
> from first world, industrialized countries as well as third world countries
> are at risk for spread of this virus, particularly so since we have
> apparently stopped innoculating children against polio (this I am not
> positive about - a rumor?). Destroying the stocks are not going to make
> natural populations go away, they will only impair our ability to deal with
> them when they arise.
>> Megan Igo
At the 1996 ASV meeting there was a seminar on this topic. I believe
they planned to stop innoculating 2-3 years after they find no more
natural resevoirs of polio. The most worrisome aspect was the
salesmanlike way it was presented to fellow scientists without
quantitative data... they "destroyed" "eradicated" or "wiped out" polio
without stating what criteria they used for ensuring there were no
cases. Some mention was made of PCRing toilet waste in the future, I
believe, but it didn't go into a lot of detail. I have a hard time
believing that this is a good measure of polio eradication. The
financial part of the talk was quite ridiculous, talking about how much
money could be saved by eliminating vaccination. Numbers were tossed
about without any context (millions and millions of dollars etc., rather
than % of GNP) and nary a thought was given to the potential costs if
PCRing toilets isn't such a great method of testing after all. All in
all, it sounded more as if the people involved were trying to justify
their budget to laymen than convince other scientists that their plan
was feasible and cautious.
Dave Shivak
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David Shivak - shivakd at fhs.mcmaster.ca * Check out Careers In (and Out) of
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"He had been eight years upon a project for extracting sunbeams out of
cucumbers, which were to be put in vials hermetically sealed, and let out
to warm the air in raw inclement summers." - Jonathan Swift, _Gulliver's
Travels_, Ch. 5.
